שלוש נושאות מטוסים אמריקאיות, עימות בנקודת חנק, ואיראן

הערכה

Three American carrier groups in the Persian Gulf signal a serious military posture, not a drill. Iran's rejected ceasefire offer and its ability to choke the Strait of Hormuz create a direct test of wills. The real question is whether Washington's midterm political pressures will drive escalation or restraint. Watch for how Arab Gulf states navigate this, as their diplomatic moves will reveal whether they see Iran's squeeze as a genuine threat or a negotiating tactic.