אשליית השלום עם טהראן

הערכה

The Vance administration is being pulled between two longstanding options that each carry heavy costs. Negotiations with Tehran are stalling partly because hardliners in the regime see war as preferable to a deal. What Washington may still be underestimating is Iran's ability to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz with minimal military investment but massive global economic disruption. The real question is whether the US can sustain pressure long enough to force a shift, or whether the illusion of containing Iran without confronting its system will collapse first.