Le pétrole ne décidera pas
L'Iran n'est pas capable de survivre à des combats de plus de quelques semaines supplémentaires. Les dommages causés à son économie s'élèvent déjà à 200 milliards de dollars, soit au moins la moitié (!) de…
Évaluation
The assessment that Iran cannot sustain more than a few more weeks of combat suggests the regime's economic collapse is accelerating faster than its military posture. With half the annual GDP already destroyed and subsidized staples rising 180% annually, the Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis among its non-elite population. The key question is whether this economic pressure will fracture the regime internally before any diplomatic off-ramp emerges.