L'illusion post-FINUL : pourquoi une formule américano-française au Sud-Liban ne peut remplacer la dissuasion israélienne

Évaluation

The approaching end of UNIFIL's mandate forces a reckoning with a decades-long failure. The peacekeeping force never prevented Hezbollah from entrenching itself along Israel's border, and no diplomatic formula from Washington and Paris has yet addressed that core problem. Without a credible military deterrent on the ground, any replacement arrangement risks becoming another paper guarantee. The coming months will test whether the US and France can produce a plan that does more than rearrange the furniture.