El petróleo no decidirá
Irán no puede sobrevivir más de unas pocas semanas de combate. Los daños a su economía ya ascienden a 200 mil millones de dólares, al menos la mitad (!) del producto interno anual. Fuera de…
Valoración
The assessment that Iran cannot sustain more than a few more weeks of combat suggests the regime's economic collapse is accelerating faster than its military posture. With half the annual GDP already destroyed and subsidized staples rising 180% annually, the Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis among its non-elite population. The key question is whether this economic pressure will fracture the regime internally before any diplomatic off-ramp emerges.