Lebanon can negotiate with Israel – but it cannot control Hezbollah
US-brokered diplomacy rests on the hope that Beirut can impose authority over an Iran-backed militia it lacks both the will and the power to confront
Assessment
The US brokered diplomacy assumes Beirut can assert control over Hezbollah, but the Lebanese state lacks both the will and the capacity to confront the Iran backed militia. The gap between diplomatic hopes and on the ground power dynamics leaves any negotiated settlement fragile and uncertain.