As the US and Iran trade blows over Hormuz, how long before the nuclear threat forces Israel to go back to war?
With the conflict currently focused on the oil chokepoint, existential questions over the regime’s ballistic programme have not gone away
Assessment
The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz is the immediate flashpoint, but the underlying nuclear question remains unresolved. Israel's calculus may shift if diplomatic or military efforts fail to contain Iran's ballistic program. The timeline for a potential Israeli response depends on how quickly the nuclear threat escalates beyond the current maritime confrontation.