"The Gulf will never be as it was": Iran's enormous victory
The Iranian attacks and the struggle over opening the Strait of Hormuz deepen the rift between the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman hold alternatives for oil exports, while Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain…
Assessment
Iran's military actions and the escalating contest over the Strait of Hormuz are driving a wedge between Gulf states, exposing a critical fault line in regional energy security. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have developed alternative export routes, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain remain entirely dependent on the strait. This divergence means Iran's strategy could fracture Gulf unity, forcing the most vulnerable states into a precarious position. The key question is whether these dependencies will push them toward accommodation with Iran or deeper reliance on external naval protection.