Trump administration fights Minnesota law outlawing Kalshi, Polymarket-style markets
The law was to go into effect Aug. 1, but CFTC chairman Michael Selig said in a statement that it "turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight."
Assessment
A federal-state clash is brewing over prediction markets, with the Trump administration intervening to block a Minnesota statute that would criminalize platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman directly called out the law for branding legal market operators as felons. This dispute tests whether states can override federal regulatory authority over these financial instruments, and the outcome could set a precedent for how prediction markets are governed nationwide. Watch for the legal proceedings and whether other states attempt similar restrictions.