Oil Won't Decide
Iran is incapable of sustaining combat for more than a few additional weeks. The damage to its economy has already mounted to 200 billion dollars — at least half (!) of its annual GDP. Outside…
Assessment
The assessment that Iran cannot sustain more than a few more weeks of combat suggests the regime's economic collapse is accelerating faster than its military posture. With half the annual GDP already destroyed and subsidized staples rising 180% annually, the Islamic Republic faces a legitimacy crisis among its non-elite population. The key question is whether this economic pressure will fracture the regime internally before any diplomatic off-ramp emerges.