The Post-UNIFIL Illusion: Why a US-French Formula in South Lebanon Cannot Replace Israeli Deterrence
A UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) vehicle is seen next to piled up debris at Beirut’s port, Lebanon, Oct. 23, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir The end of UNIFIL’s mandate for Lebanon is approaching, but the debate over…
Assessment
The approaching end of UNIFIL's mandate forces a reckoning with a decades-long failure. The peacekeeping force never prevented Hezbollah from entrenching itself along Israel's border, and no diplomatic formula from Washington and Paris has yet addressed that core problem. Without a credible military deterrent on the ground, any replacement arrangement risks becoming another paper guarantee. The coming months will test whether the US and France can produce a plan that does more than rearrange the furniture.